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The following is excerpted from the Globe & Mail article The ‘undecided’ can make or break a party
Quebec’s two major polling firms, CROP and Leger Marketing, underestimated Liberal support by five and four points, respectively, because they distributed the undecided proportionally to the decided, even though undecided voters tend to vote for the Liberals.
During the 1980 referendum on sovereignty, several polls predicted a Yes victory, but polling firm Sorécom and its renowned adviser, distinguished McGill University sociologist Maurice Pinard, correctly predicted the result by allowing a larger portion of the undecided and the “discreet” to the No side.
Unfortunately, this method fell out of use in recent years. Claire Durand, a Université de Montréal sociologist, was the only analyst to foresee the strength of the Liberal Party because she went back to the old, proven method of Prof. Pinard.
The pollsters also ignored another factor that worked for the Liberals: a formidable organization that “got the vote out,” an advantage the CAQ’s fledgling organization was unable to emulate.
Further Reading
Motivational Dimensions in Social Movements and Contentious Collective Action
By Maurice Pinard
For years, students of social movements and other forms of contentious action have been sharply divided over what motivates people to engage in protest. Early on, analysts generally agreed that participation in acts of protest was motivated by various deprivations pushing toward action. Newer perspectives began to reject these views, holding that grievances were permanent and ubiquitous, and could not therefore explain new forms of action. Goods to be pursued were then seen as the essential and pulling motivational force. However, even those came to be seen as inessential and the focus turned toward structural factors such as organizations, resources, opportunities, and mobilization as the crucial determinants of protest.
By developing theoretical distinctions that have important empirical implications and enriching and sharpening our understanding of the motivational factors for collective action, Pinard offers a major contribution destined to become an essential new starting point for any future writers addressing these issues.
To learn more about Motivational Dimensions in Social Movements and Contentious Collective Action, or to order online, click here.
To arrange an interview with the author, contact MQUP Publicist Jacqui Davis.
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