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Expect a few surprises in next week’s Throne Speech. But don’t expect a snap federal election.
That’s the word from political scientist Tom Flanagan, a long-time adviser to Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Don’t expect any surprises in this week’s provincial elections, either, he said, Tuesday. Flanagan predicted Premier Danny Williams and his Conservatives would sweep Newfoundland — he was proven correct later in the day — but said Ontario’s Conservatives have blown their chances in that election.
"The Liberals will win a majority in Ontario," Flanagan predicted during a brief appearance in Lethbridge. Author of a recently released political memoir, Flanagan has returned to his political science post at the University of Calgary after years as a senior adviser to Harper and Reform Party leaders as they morphed into Alliance and eventually Conservative colours.
The prime minister will catch some people by surprise when his Throne Speech is read next week, Flanagan said in an interview. "I know his style. There will be a couple of small surprises," at least. "He likes that."
No longer in Harper’s inner circle, Flanagan admitted he doesn’t know what the government’s new agenda will include. But he said there are still election campaign promises to honour, including more tax cuts.
"The government is well off," and it’s time the Conservatives cut corporate taxes as promised. "They should cut that second point off the GST as well," lowering the rate to five per cent ahead of their five-year target. "They can afford to do that earlier."
Flanagan said Harper could also get to work on promises to allow provinces to opt out of federal programs, taking cash instead. "That will be popular in Quebec," where the province already operates its own pension plan.
As for the federal Liberals, their biggest challenge seems to be setting some priorities. Flanagan said it’s not enough to simply oppose everything the government proposes. "They’ve got to put together a platform."
Instead of continually criticizing the Tories for disregarding the Kyoto agreement, for example, Flanagan said Liberal leader Stephane Dion should offer a plan — if he’s elected — to bring Canada up to speed on the issue.
"What is the Liberals’ plan now?" he asked.
First in the Liberals’ priorities, Flanagan suggested, should be getting their house back in order. Dion — who won with less than 20 per cent support — needs to draw more people in the party’s organization and Flanagan said he needs to spend a lot more time fund-raising. "The Conservatives are in a good position," with plenty of talent and money at their disposal. "They’re ready to go any time."
Flanagan, in Lethbridge to speak at a public session organized by the political science department at the University of Lethbridge, also stopped at the campus bookstore to sign copies of his latest book.
"Harper’s Team: Behind the Scenes in the Conservative Rise to Power" was recently previewed as a cover story in Maclean’s magazine. And it’s drawn comment from plenty of readers — including Dion, who believed it offers proof of Harper’s "hidden agenda."
That’s surprising, Flanagan said, because he always advocated moderation and "incrementalism" in moving toward more conservative policies. Many other political figures have also called him to share their views since the book was released this fall.
But not his old boss, Stephen Harper. "I haven’t heard anything from him," said the author. "I think he’s too busy for literary criticism."
– Dave Mabell
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