"Climate change is not just a science problem - it's a social one - Climate Change in the 21st Century provides a fresh perspective because it primarily focuses on specific examples of societal implications and responses to climate change" Jacqueline J. Shinker, University of Wyoming

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"The authors bring together various kinds of science-oriented material around a complex topic that is usually addressed from only one perspective, highlighting issues and methods that are at the cutting edge of research about climate change" Elizabeth Malone, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, Maryland

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"For students, major decision-makers, or concerned, college-educated voters, Climate Change in the 21st Century is a valuable guide to a global reality that is abstraction no more." Montreal Review of Books

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"Recently, "ecophobia" has arisen as a debilitating problematic for ecocriticism. The fear is over performative incapacity. A major aspect of that fear is the sketchy scientific understanding among some ecocritics. Stewart Cohen's Climate Change in the 21st Century can help remedy that. (...) Ecocritics will especially appreciate [Cohen's] discussion of the fraught notion of sustainability that closes the book." David Heinimann, The Goose: Literature, Arts, Environment & Culture in Canada

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"... something worth adding to even an overloaded climate change bookshelf."Barry W. Brook, Environment Institute and School of Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of Adelaide

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"This book merits a place in every type of library and will be a useful resource for readers from diverse backgrounds." Choice Magazine

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"This book is well written and deals especially effectively with the adaptation and social dimensions of the issue ... if the reader is interested or involved in issues of climate change impacts, adaptation and mitigation, this book is highly recommended as a thorough, dispassionate, description of the context and issues involved." Canadian Water Resources Journal

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"Compared to other books on the subject, Climate Change in the 21st Century is more comprehensive, multidisciplinary, and detailed. I recommend this book to anyone who wants to have a basic foundation of climate and society studies." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Stewart J. Cohen is senior researcher in climate change impacts and adaptation, Adaptation and Impacts Research Division, Environment Canada, and adjunct professor, Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia.

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Melissa Waddell is a science and technical communicator, specializing in translating complex environmental and health issues for non-specialized audiences.

Climate Change in the 21st Century
Stewart J. Cohen with Melissa W. Waddell

Table of Contents



Acknowledgments
List of Figures
List of Tables
List of Websites of Interest

1 The Many Dimensions of Climate Change in the 21st Century

2 The History of Climate Change Research From the 1820s
Introduction
Pioneer studies of anthropogenic climate change, 1820s - 1930s
Broadening of the climate change research effort, 1950s - 1970s
The growth of scenario-based research, 1980s
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Conferences of the Parties (COPs)
GHG Scenarios
Kyoto Protocol
Role of Mass Media
Discussion

3 The Climate Science Aspects of Climate Change
Introduction
The Energy Balance and the Global Climate System
The Global Carbon Cycle
Signal Detection
Atmosphere Ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCMs)
Challenges for Climate Model Development
Radiative Forcing
Model Resolution
Clouds and Precipitation
The Land-Surface “Bucket”
Summary of Climate Model Issues
Emission Scenarios
Alternative Climate Change Scenarios
Choosing a Scenario
Discussion

4 Impact and Adaptation Assessment Framework
Introduction
Organizing the Assessment
Challenges for Impact and Adaptation Assessment
Scenario Approach versus Vulnerability Approach
Discussion

5 Ecosystem Processes and Climate Change
Introduction
Background
General Plant Responses to Changing CO2 and Temperature
C3 and C4 Plants and Their Responses to Changing Climate and Temperature
CO2 Enrichment and Effects on Plant Communities
Observed Impacts of Recent Climatic Variability on Ecosystems and Landscapes
Potential Impacts of Climate Change Scenarios
Impacts on Crops
Impacts on Parks
Impacts on Water Resources
Impacts on Fisheries
Discussion

6 The Economic Aspects of Climate Change
Introduction
Challenges to Economic Assessments of Climate Change Impacts
Terminology and Key Concepts
Welfare, value, and Purchasing Power Parity
Supply and demand
Discounting
Willingness to Pay and other concepts
Market Versus Non-market Values
Uncertainties in Defining Costs
Cost-Benefit Analysis
The Ricardian approach
Sustainability approach
Sectoral Impacts of Climate Change
Agriculture
Water Resources
Coastal Zones
Disasters from Extreme Events
Higher Order Impacts of Climate Change
Health
Value of a Statistical Life (VOSL)
Total Monetized Damages
Ethical concerns associated with economic analyses
Discussion

7 The Social Aspects of Climate Change Impacts
Introduction
Social Dimensions to Climate Change
Background
Vulnerability
Adaptive Capacity and Coping Range
Studying Impacts Versus Studying Vulnerabilities
Differential Capacities for Responses to Climate Change
Climate Change and Human Settlements
Differential Impacts
Differential Vulnerabilities and Risks
Differential Emissions
Equity in Climate Change Responses
Adaptation
New Adaptation Considerations
Discussion

8 Mitigation Responses to Climate Change - Overview of the Process
Introduction
Background
Emission Trends, Scenarios, and Stabilisation
UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol Negotiation Process
Negotiations of Emission Reduction Targets
The 1998-2004 COPs
Introduction to the Kyoto Protocol Instruments
Overview of the Kyoto Instruments
Supporting Infrastructure
Summary

9 Mitigation Responses to Climate Change - Trading and Investment Mechanisms
Introduction
Carbon Sinks
Carbon Sinks and the Carbon Cycle
Challenges with Carbon Accounting
Carbon Sinks as a Policy Mechanism
Joint Implementation
Clean Development Mechanism
Emissions Trading
Challenges with “Hot Air”
New Technology
Contraction and Convergence
Adaptation and Mitigation Linkages
Climate Change Policy Challenges and Dilemmas
Can Kyoto Succeed?
Discussion

10 Integrated Assessments of Climate Change
Introduction
Integrated Assessment Tool Kit
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs)
Cultural Theory
Complex Adaptive Systems
Examples of IAMs
Case Studies of IAMs
TARGETS
ICAM
AIM
Participatory Integrated Assessments (PIAs)
Stakeholder Commitment
Organizing Integrated Assessments of Climate Change Impacts
Case Studies of PIAs
Mackenzie Basin Impacts Study (MBIS)
Okanagan Water Resources
Modelling versus Participatory Processes
Future Challenges and Opportunities
Discussion

11 Context: Climate Change and Other Global Environmental Problems
Introduction
Defining Dangerous Climate Change
Linking Climate Change and Sustainable Development
Evolution of the Climate Change Discourse
Evolution of the Sustainable Development Discourse
Consequences of the Separation of these Discourses
Efforts to Link Climate Change and Sustainable Development
Emergence of a South-North Dialogue
Sustainable Development Policy as Part of Climate Change Policy
Climate Policy and Sustainable Development
Discussion

12 Conclusion

References