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Clingendael Institute, The Hague, Clingendael 7, 2597 VH Den Haag
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By invitation only
Three years after the conclusion of the second Minsk agreement on a ceasefire and conflict resolution in Eastern Ukraine the negotiations have hardly produced any real results. People are still regularly killed and positions of the main parties to the conflict only seem to have hardened with no political solution in sight. Talks in the Normandy format (Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia) have lost momentum and US-Russian talks do not seem to produce the necessary impetus. In this context, Ukrainian and Russian plans to introduce a UN peacekeeping operation in Donbas to assist in breaking the deadlock run the risk of becoming the latest victims of an increasingly intractable conflict, only the latest of this kind in the post-soviet space, leading to two new unrecognised entities: the separatist-controlled "DNR" and "LNR."
As the Netherlands holds a non-permanent seat in the UN Security Council in 2018 and has become involved in the conflict itself because of the tragedy with MH-17, Clingendael has taken the initiative to hold this expert roundtable on possibilities for conflict resolution in Eastern Ukraine/Donbas region. For the Netherlands it would not be the first time to become involved in conflict resolution and mediation in the post-soviet space. The Dutch OSCE Chairmanship in 2003 almost produced a breakthrough on a similar protracted conflict in Moldova/Transnistria.
The seminar brings together three experts who can offer very different perspectives on the conflict in Donbas and on the prospects of its resolution. Head of Clingendael research cluster Europe in the World, Rem Kortweg, will moderate the panel discussion on the prospects for a negotiated political solution to the conflict in Donbas, including on the implementation of the Minsk Agreements, the role of sanctions and the prospects for a UN peacekeeping operation, as proposed in different forms by Ukraine and the Russian Federation.
Tony van der Togt, Clingendael Senior Research Fellow
Building on his own research as presented in Tug of War: Negotiating security in Eurasia (edited by Fen Osler Hampson and Mikhail Troitskiy, published as a result of the Clingendael-coordinated Programme for International Negotiations), Tony van der Togt will elaborate on the negotiations of protracted conflicts in the post-soviet space, drawing some lessons from the Moldova/Transnistria case for the present negotiations on Eastern Ukraine, which seem to lead to just another "frozen conflict" with no realistic perspective for a political resolution.
His contribution will be preceded by a short introduction on the research for the book on the particular challenges of negotiating security in Eurasia by its co-editor, Mikhail Troitskiy (MGIMO, Moscow), who will join us briefly via Skype.
Oleksiy Haran, National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy and Research director, Democratic Initiatives Foundation
Professor Oleksiy Haran will elaborate on changing public attitudes within Ukraine on the conflict in Donbas and possibilities for a politically acceptable solution, as presented in the recent book which he co-authored, Constructing a Political Nation: Changes in the Attitudes of Ukrainians during the War in the Donbas.
Anna Matveeva, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at King’s College London (War Studies)
Anna Matveeva will tell the story of the conflict in the Donbas region from the perspective of the rebels in the separatist entities, looking at their motivations and aspirations, which she has registered in her recent book, Through Times of Trouble: Conflict in Southeastern Ukraine Explained from Within, for which she has extensively interviewed both rebels and experts in Russia and Ukraine.